2011 Oscar Nomination predictions

Only 11 days until the votes of a bunch of people (who probably watched fewer movies last year than I did and too many of whom have no idea what good costume design or good acting vs. over-acting is) have their votes tallied and the Academy releases it’s nominations. This year seems a lot less wide open than some previous years – there’s clearly one big lock movie that may have some coattails (The Social Network) and one that may have peaked in it’s Oscar buzz at just the right time (Black Swan). Unfortunately there’s also the fact that my favorite film of the year was released last Spring and thus is has been long forgotten by most voters. Timing is everything.

There’s only two mortal locks I see for winners among these awards and those are Best Picture and Best Actress. Everything else is up for grabs.

My Oscar Nomination predictions for the marquee awards (in the order of most likely to win it to least).

Best Picture:

The Social Network
Black Swan
The Fighter
The King’s Speech
Inception
Toy Story 3
127 Hours
Winter’s Bone
True Grit
The Town

Sleepers: Another Year, Rabbit Hole

Who deserves it (according to Jeff’s weird tastes): Greenberg

Best Actor:

Jesse Eisenberg (Social Network)
James Franco (127 Hours)
Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)
Jeff Bridges (True Grit)
Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)

Sleeper: Aaron Eckhart (Rabbit Hole)

Who deserves it: Ben Stiller (Greenberg)

Best Actress:
Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
Annette Benning (The Kids are All Right)
Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)
Tilda Swinton (I Am Love)
Julianne Moore (The Kids are All Right)

Sleeper: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)

Who deserves it: Hailee Steinfeld

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale (The Fighter)
Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
Andrew Garfield (The Social Network)
John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)

Sleeper: Pete Postlethwaite (posthumous tribute possibility for his work in The Town)

Who deserves it: Hawkes

Best Supporting Actress:
Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
Jackie Weaver (Animal Kingdom)
Leslie Manville (Another Year)
Olivia Williams (The Ghost Writer)
Mila Kunis (Black Swan)

Sleeper: Dianne Weist (Rabbit Hole)

Who deserves it: Rooney Mara (The Social Network)

Best Documentary:

Inside Job
Exit Through the Gift Shop
Last Train Home
Restrepo
The Tillman Story

Sleeper: Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work

Who deserves it: Exit Through the Gift Shop

Best Director:

David Fincher (The Social Network)
Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)
Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
Debra Granik (Winter’s Bone)
Mike Leigh (Another Year)

Sleeper: Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine)

Who deserves it: David Fincher (The Social Network)

Best Cinematography:

Roger Deakins (True Grit)
Wally Pfister (Inception)
Jeff Cronenweth (The Social Network)
Danny Cohen (The King’s Speech)
Michael McDonogh (Winter’s Bone)

Sleeper: Matthew Libatique (Black Swan)

Who deserves it: Harris Savides (Greenberg)

Anything I missed? Do you think any film will upset The Social Network?

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